The 2022 real estate market started with a bang! We started the year with the lowest amount of available inventory we’ve ever seen coupled with interest rates a point lower than they are now, along with a plentiful buyer pool due to a strong job market and work-from-home influenced moves. The combination of supply and demand and low debt service created an intense seller-centric environment which resulted in huge home price increases from January to March. This is on top of ten years of solid price growth; over 50% of homeowners in WA state have at least 50% home equity.

As we head into the spring and summer months, we anticipate seasonal increases in inventory, which will provide much-needed selection for buyers. Interest rates have increased as a tool to combat inflation, which was predicted by experts across the nation and announced by the Fed. Rates still remain historically low and have only departed from the “tell-your-grandkids” levels between 3.5% to 4.5%. Price growth should start to temper after a feverish Q1 and buyers will enjoy more selection. If you are curious about how your real estate goals match up with the market, please reach out. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

2022 has had an incredibly eventful start in our local real estate market. In January, the average list-to-sale price ratio (the percentage a house sells for in comparison to the list price) in King County was 105% and in Snohomish County it was 106%. This is in conjunction with complete year-over-year median price appreciation (the last 12 months of price growth averaged and compared to the previous 12 months of price growth) of 15% in King County and 23% in Snohomish County. In fact, 59% of homeowners in King County have more than 50% home equity and 55% of homeowners in Snohomish County have over 50% home equity.

With that said, how does one navigate successfully transitioning that equity to their next move, and who do they choose to help them with the job? With inventory at an all-time low and interest rates still hovering around 4%, buyer demand is high. There is no denying that homes sell quickly in this environment and oftentimes for over list price due to multiple offers. There are many different business models available to consumers when selecting who they align with to help them make this very important move. There are brokerages that will offer an up-front rebate on the commission and there are full-service brokerages, with a lot in between.

Before I highlight what a full-service brokerage, like Windermere North, has to offer a seller I want to show you some numbers rooted in seller results. In 2021, my office, Windermere North, outperformed the market – we sold homes faster and at a higher return!

Even as we track our statistics so far in 2022, according to NWMLS data, my office’s average list-to-sale price ratio for King and Snohomish Counties combined, including both residential and condo sales, was 114% and 4 days on the market. This compares to the average market results of 105% and 19 days on the market.

Our approach involves a strategic home preparation process, detailed price analysis, and keen negotiations. You might ask what type of negotiations happen when a seller is reviewing a stack of offers; actually, more than you know. Sifting through the terms of offers and vetting the buyers through rapport-building with their broker and lender helps us unearth who the most qualified buyer is to get into contract with. This takes extra time and skilled communication, but as you can see, these extra steps pay off for our sellers.

We also understand that getting a home ready for market can be a daunting task, but the upside is too measurable to ignore. We help our clients identify a punch-list of prep items and match them up with concierge-level service providers to help complete the work. Even if our sellers are limited in funds to prep their home, we have funds available for no up-front costs. Please reach out if you think this would be helpful.

Then the merchandising comes in (depending on the house): staging, professional photography, video, floorplans, print materials, and public exposure is planned and executed. Our listings hit the market perfectly positioned for buyers to see themselves living there and we invest in this on behalf of our sellers. We help connect the emotional dots that invoke buyers’ lifestyle goals resulting in high returns for our sellers.

Lastly, perspective is key! Markets shift, ebbing and flowing. Pricing a home is strategic and requires analysis of the recent sales, historical seasonality, and current market trends. This research is done sifting through data, but also with intangible outreach to fellow brokers inquiring about their experiences and gleaning conclusions. Also, physically touring the inventory, whether I’m showing buyers or walking through to see for myself, helps me understand how a home measures up and what buyers are looking for. All of these steps are over-and-above the norm and help contribute to the results my office is producing.

If you are considering a move, make sure you align yourself with a trusted advisor who is willing to put in the extra work to get you the best possible results. Navigating an extreme sellers’ market takes great skill and care to garner the best results. If done right, that skill and care will beat out any upfront discount a less-engaged broker will offer to win a listing. Make sure you consider the big picture, not just an immediate reward. Understand that who you choose to partner with to assist you with one of the biggest financial decisions a person ever makes is a very big deal. It is always my goal to help keep my clients well-informed and empower strong decisions. Please reach out if you think I can help you or someone you know, whether you are just curious about the market or you’re ready to make a move.

Cheers to 50 Years!
Fifty years of relationships, 50 years of giving back to our communities, and 50 years of growth. In 1972, Windermere Real Estate was founded by John Jacobi in the Sand Point neighborhood of Seattle, WA. Since then, Windermere has expanded to 10 states including Washington, Idaho, Oregon, Montana, California, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Hawaii, and Colorado. Our network reaches over 300+ offices and 7,000+ brokers.  I can tap into our network of offices in the states above and I can also access Leading Real Estate Companies of the World beyond our Windermere network to help you find a like-minded broker for your out-of-area needs.

Even better, Windermere has donated just over $46 Million through the Windermere Foundation, giving funds back to the communities in which we serve. Windermere’s collective goal in 2022, is to get the Windermere Foundation to the $50 Million mark to help commemorate this monumental anniversary. Here’s to another impactful 50 years serving our communities through relationships, homeownership, and community outreach.

Last week, my office hosted our 14th annual Economic Forecast Event with Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist. It was an hour-long presentation followed by lively Q & A that was packed with useful information to help guide us as we start the new year. Matthew journeyed the audience through a macro to micro approach, reflecting on all of the activity in 2021 and also analyzing future trends.

He started with a national overview of the economy overall and ended with a detailed accounting for King and Snohomish County housing markets, including some predictions. Below are some highlighted bullet points. Please reach out if you would like a digital copy of his PowerPoint and/or the link to the recording of his presentation.

National Economy:
The GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth in 2021 was 3.9%, well above the long-term average of 2%. This indicates we are not in a recession and have recovered from the brief recession we experienced in the spring of 2020. A recession is defined by two consecutive quarters with declining GDP.

Matthew anticipates the U.S. to be back to full employment by the end 2022 after the fall-out of 2020 due to the pandemic shut-down.

Inflation:
Inflation peaked in Q4 of 2021 and is projected to start to slow as supply chain issues improve.  Certain industries such as used cars which are costing 25% more since February 2020 are having a huge influence on overall numbers. Food and energy prices are also volatile and affecting overall numbers.

U.S. Housing Market:
Improved supply chain and labor forces will increase the number of new builds, increasing inventory to help quench buyer demand. This will slow national year-over-year price growth to 6.5% in 2022.

Regional Economy:
Jobs are increasing and will recover from the spring 2020 fall-out twice as fast as the job losses we saw during the Great Recession of 2008. In fact, he expects local jobs to fully return by the end of 2022!

Our diverse economy which includes tech, aerospace, biotech, and manufacturing will help our overall economy thrive as we are not dependent on just one industry for a full recovery.

Mortgage Rates:
Mortgage rates are predicted to slowly rise in 2022. Matthew along with the National Mortgage Brokers Association, Fannie Mae, and the National Association of Realtors expect rates to end the year just under 4%. This is well below the long-term average of 7.5%!

Prices:
In 2021, prices were up 14% year-over-year in King County and 24% in Snohomish County. He predicts housing prices to rise 13% in King County and 14% in Snohomish County in 2022. This is well above the long-term average of 5.5% year-over-year!

The Work from Home phenomenon has had a huge influence on price growth in the suburbs. Many buyers have eliminated long commutes or are only having to drive into work a handful of days a month. This has driven many buyers to consider the suburban markets which is why the price growth in Snohomish County was much higher than King. Seattle saw a bit of a correction as this new lifestyle shift came to be. He anticipates 2022 to be kind to urban markets and a continued attraction to the suburbs.

In 2021, net in-migration in both King and Snohomish Counties was up, which is continuing to have a strong influence on buyer demand. In fact, new listings were up in 2021 over 2020; it was increased buyer demand that whittled down inventory levels and drove prices up.

Homeowner Equity:
Prices have been growing since 2012 and have had historic growth over the last two years. In King County, 59% of homeowners have 50% or more equity in their homes and in Snohomish County, 55% of homeowners have 50% or more home equity.

This uptick in home equity and the Work from Home shift has reduced the average tenure a homeowner spends living in their home to just shy of 7 years in 2021 from 10 years just two years ago. This is another indicator of buyer demand.

Are we Headed Towards a Housing Bubble?
Simply put, no!  Even with forbearance being a viable option to weather the fall-out from the pandemic, there will not be a wave of foreclosures on the horizon. Homeowners have too much equity to walk away, they will sell and take their profits in order to recover if need be.

Prices have made a big run, but if you take interest rates and inflation into consideration, monthly payments are only up 26% since 2000 in King County and 34% in Snohomish County. That is parallel to raw home prices being up 249% since 2000 in King County and 272% in Snohomish County.

Financial indicators such as recovering jobs, deep homeowner equity, stringent lending practices, strong buyer demand, and low interest rates combat any inkling of a housing bubble. There are 600k Millennials in King County and 171k in Snohomish County that are coming of age and will want to buy a house.

Condominiums:
Condo sales stalled when the pandemic hit as people decided if they wanted to live in such density, and the downtown core suffered due to the shutdown. Since then, the stall started to move forward and condo prices are up 7% year-over-year in King County and 23% in Snohomish County. Condos provide a more affordable option, especially for first-time buyers, and single-level, maintenance-free living for retirees. Condos are predicted to appreciate 4% in King County in 2022 and 7% in Snohomish County.

Luxury Market:
2021 was the year that the $1M home sale price became more common. In 2021 there we 11k sales over $1M in King County compared to 7k in 2020. In Snohomish County, there were just shy of 2k sales over $1M in compared to 590 in 2020. The $1M price point may not be synonymous with the definition of luxury any longer. It is more so a depiction of affordability in our region. With that said, homes in the very high-end have had brisk movement and marked appreciation.

Overview:
The Work from Home lifestyle is real and has created lots of movement in the marketplace, especially towards the suburbs. This has caused an upward trajectory on price appreciation along with continued low interest rates. New listings outpaced 2020, but buyer demand gobbled up the inventory leaving us at the lowest levels we have ever seen as we start 2022. Price appreciation will continue but is predicted to decelerate after record-breaking levels in 2021.  Interest rates will creep up by the end of 2022 and inflation will improve as the supply chain recovers. Homeowner equity is at an all-time high and jobs are recovering, offsetting any big crash to the housing market. Affordability is our biggest roadblock as the landscape of the PNW has changed with tech jobs the heart of our renewed economy.

If you attended our Virtual Economic Forecast Event last week with Matthew Gardner, did you see the mountain of socks?! Matthew is a bit of a sock aficionado, and we usually give him a gift of some fun or funny socks at our yearly event. This year, we decided to collect socks and donate them in Matthew’s name to Beautiful Soles for local kids in need. I am happy to report we collected 523 pairs of socks and $125 amongst our brokers.

Thank you to everyone who gave to our Healthcare Worker Meal Drive in December! We raised $4,360 which enabled us to deliver meals and snacks to frontline workers at Providence in Everett, Swedish Edmonds, and UW Medicine Northwest Hospital. We partnered with We Got This Seattle, who helped us coordinate the restaurants we ordered from and set up our contacts at the hospitals.  I am so grateful for ALL of our local frontline workers who have been working so long and hard under the most difficult circumstances.

How a home is prepared for the market has a direct economic effect on the results a seller will have in the marketplace. Making home updates to match today’s trends, repairing deferred maintenance items, deep cleaning, and home staging all help contribute to a higher return for home sellers and less time on the market. According to the National Association of Realtors, 82% of home buyers said that staging and proper home preparation helped them better visualize a property as their future home. Even in the brisk seller’s market we are currently experiencing, it has paid off for sellers to get their properties ready for market in order to reap the highest return in the quickest amount of time. This is why Windermere has partnered with Move Forward Financial and developed the Windermere Ready Loan.

The Windermere Ready Loan allows our home sellers to receive access to funds to make home improvements and merchandise their homes for the market with no upfront cost. Clients can borrow up to $50,000 as long as the Windermere Ready Loan and any other encumbrances on the property do not exceed 75% of the market value. With the majority of Puget Sound cities having experienced 15-25% in price appreciation over the last year or two, this loan-to-value ratio is very manageable.

Even better, this program does not require a costly appraisal, but just an approved Comparative Market Analysis (CMA) from their Windermere broker and their office manager. Once that is done, approval can happen as fast as 2 business days and the loan can fund in 10 business days. In comparison to a cash-out refinance or home equity line of credit which both can take up to 60 days, the turnaround time is minimal.

The loan fee is 4% (based on the loan amount) and is due only once the subject property closes and requires no interest payments. There is a nominal $20 credit reporting fee and a $20 administrative fee collected at closing as well. Loans must fund within 60 days of approval and are due within 6 months of funding.

Clients do not need to present bids, only a predetermined amount they want to borrow that does not eclipse the 75% loan-to-value amount. Clients can also choose their own contractors. I also have a list of preferred contractors that I can access to help concierge the home-preparation experience for my clients.

I understand that getting a home ready to sell is not always an easy feat, but one worth the effort to get the most optimal outcome. If you are interested in learning more about this program, please reach out. I am happy to answer more questions, assist you in the process and help you get your home Windermere Ready in 2022!

Please join me for a very special virtual live event:

AN ECONOMIC FORECAST FOR 2022 & BEYOND
with Matthew Gardner, Chief Economist for Windermere Real Estate

Wednesday, January 19, 2022
6:30pm – 8pm

Presentation from 6:30-7:30pm, Q&A to follow

Please RSVP by phone/text or email by January 14th, 2022
to receive an emailed event link prior to the event.

This holiday season, I invite you to join me in this tangible way of showing gratitude and support to our healthcare workers, who have worked so long and hard under the most difficult circumstances.

In tandem with The Windermere Foundation and local non-profit We Got This Seattle, my office is collecting donations that will be used to purchase meals from local restaurants. We will be personally delivering these meals over three weeks to a coordinated point person at Providence Hospital in Everett, Swedish Edmonds, and UW Medical Center-Northwest. Meals and treats will be distributed to frontline workers such as nurses, doctors, respiratory therapists, and cleaning staff.

We are still collecting donations for UW Medical Center – Northwest. You can donate here through December 27th.

Results so far:

• $1,345 donated for meals to Providence Everett, we delivered 150 meals on December 16th!!!
• $2,105 donated for meals to Swedish Edmonds!! We will deliver meals right around the Christmas holiday.

Thank you for your generous gifts in support of our community.

Happy Holidays!

The recent news of Zillow’s plan to shut down their iBuyer program due to a $328 million loss in the third quarter has heads spinning in the real estate world and on Wall Street.  Sadly, Zillow plans to eliminate 25% of its workforce because of its decision to move away from the practice of purchasing and re-selling homes due to their mismanagement of property price evaluations.  “Fundamentally, we have been unable to predict the future pricing of homes to a level of accuracy that makes this a safe business to be in,” Zillow CEO Rich Barton.

This is a bold statement from a CEO who built their company on a computer algorithm that spits out a home value called, the Zestimate.  A Zestimate is an AVM (Automated Valuation Model).  The product of an automated valuation technology comes from analysis of public record data and computer decision logic combined to provide a calculated estimate of a probable selling price of a residential property.  An AVM generally uses a combination of two types of evaluation, a hedonic model and a repeat sales index.  The results of each are weighted, analyzed, and then reported as a final estimate of value based on a requested date.

Zillow’s iBuyer program sought to find eager home sellers who wanted a quick, no-nonsense sale.  They would present a cash offer based on their algorithm and close on a mutually agreed-upon date.  After closing, Zillow would turn these properties around with some improvements and bring them back to the market.  This is often labeled a “flip”.  The problem was Zillow overpaid for the majority of their purchases which proved that their computer-generated evaluation (AVM) lacks market accuracy.

On average, they re-sold these homes for $80,800 less than what they purchased them for.  Thorough market research that includes touring the subject and neighboring properties, seeking info from other brokers about the terms of recent sales and overall experience helps to determine accurate market conditions in comparison to the swirl of data used to establish the Zestimate.  Computers can’t do this type of in-depth research, nor do they have the instinct to predict shifts in the market, but humans (real estate brokers) can!

Often times when I am talking with potential sellers, their Zestimate (or other AVMs) come up in the overall conversation. I understand why, too. This is information that is relatively easy to access and gives the seller a starting point on the value of their home. Where an AVM can become dangerous is when a consumer thinks it’s the be-all, end-all. Even worse, when a consumer makes a major financial decision solely based on this information. According to Zillow, 39% of all Zestimates in the Seattle metro area are not within 5% of the actual value. In fact, they publish an accuracy report that you can access here.

In October, the median home price in the Seattle Metro area was $850,000. With 39% of all Zestimates not within 5% of the actual value, that is a beginning margin of error of $42,500! Further, they claim that 82% of their Zestimates are within 10% of the actual value, which is a marked difference – up to $85,000. Where AVMs are incomplete is that the basis of their formula is tax records, which in my experience are often inaccurate. Also, and most importantly, an AVM does not take into consideration the condition of the home, the neighborhood, and other environmental impacts such as school district, road noise, and unsightly neighboring homes, to name a few.

So why does the Zestimate exist? Zillow is a publicly-traded company (ZG) and their website is the vehicle to create profit. The Zestimate drives consumers to the website who are often dipping their toes in the pool to see what their home might be worth or searching available homes for sale. When a consumer is searching on Zillow’s website they are surrounded by real estate broker and mortgage broker ads on every page. These real estate brokers and mortgage brokers are paying for that advertising space, which is how Zillow makes its money and why there is a Zestimate. The Zestimate is not a public service, it is a widget to bring eyes to their advertising space which in turn, sells more ads to brokers looking for leads.

The moral of the story is this: use Zillow as one of the many tools in your real estate evaluation and search toolbox. Zillow provides a great starting point and contains a ton of information to whet your palate when embarking on a real estate endeavor. However, we live in a time of information overload and we are overstimulated at best. Nothing beats the evaluation and discernment of a knowledgeable and experienced real estate broker to help you determine accuracy, which will lead to the empowerment of clarity.  At Windermere, we like to call this, The Human Algorithm.

If you are curious about the value of your home in today’s market, please contact me. I can provide an annual real estate review of all of your real estate holdings, and can even dive deep into a complete comparative market analysis if you would find that helpful. It is my goal to help keep my clients informed and empower strong decisions.

Zillow® and Zestimate® are trademarks of Zillow, Inc.

Matthew Gardner is the Chief Economist at Windermere and a sought-after expert on real estate, both locally and across the country. Every quarter, Matthew breaks down the real estate market by region and provides the Gardner Report; you can read this quarter’s full report here.

If you have any questions or curiosity about the current real estate market that you would like to discuss, please reach out. Are you curious about the value of your home, are you contemplating a move, or considering a new purchase? I can help! It is always my goal to help empower my clients to make strong financial decisions and to help them understand how real estate can positively affect their lifestyle.

Embarking on a home purchase in a seller’s market can be intimidating, but it can be done. Long-term price growth confirms that owning a home is a key element to building household wealth. Home equity gained over time is typically the largest asset that contributes to a household’s net worth. Homeownership is not only an investment, but also provides shelter and fits the lifestyle needs of the owner. We have seen many lifestyle-driven moves during the pandemic highlighting the value of location and features for buyers. Also, with the advent of remote work, many buyers have been able to be more flexible in determining their top locations. This has contributed to stronger price growth in suburban and rural locations.

Buyers having a well-thought-out plan is paramount to finding success in today’s market. Partnering with their broker to assess their budget and how it relates to the location(s) and features they desire is the strategic formula that helps a buyer gain clarity. Buyer clarity is what leads a buyer to be able to make a sound decision to offer on a home. If a buyer is not clear, they will not be empowered to make a decision; in turn elongating the process and costing them more money. We have seen intense price growth since the beginning of the year illustrating the cost of waiting. In King County median price is up 16% year-over-year and up 21% in Snohomish County.

The tool that we use to help a buyer determine a productive search for their new home is The Triangle of Buyer Clarity. It is an expert tool for a buyer to help determine the parameters of their home search in order to save them time and money. The relationship between Price, Location, and Features/Condition is paramount in helping a buyer gain clarity and efficiency in their search.

Helping buyers stay focused on the reality of what their budget can afford them by applying The Triangle is an effective tool. For instance, if a buyer is set on a turn-key home that requires minimal updates, they may have to go up in price or further out in location, or both. The sides of The Triangle are often adjusted to make an uneven triangle, resulting in an effective home search and a successful purchase. An equilateral triangle is like a unicorn; buyers often have to adjust at least one side of the triangle to match the market with their ability to perform. Now here’s the geometry lesson: a buyer will often start the process with an equilateral triangle in mind, but will find success with either an isosceles (two equal sides) or a scalene (no equal sides) triangle. The moral of the geometry lesson is we have to be willing to compromise.

Understanding that compromise is OK and that it is actually a tool is when a buyer gains the clarity they need to successfully move forward. This is even further nuanced when two people are buying a home together; the adjustments must be done as a team. A skilled broker is well-versed in helping guide this process and making sure each participant is being heard and hearing each other. At the end of the day, real estate is a relationship business, and effectively curating this process is dependent on trust and care.

Helping buyers find their next home is one of the most joy-filled activities I have the honor of being a part of. It may appear simple, but it is not. The crucial conversations, contemplation, and planning that happen in order to find success are intentional. Taking the time upfront to analyze my buyers’ goals instead of just jumping in the car and starting to look at homes is a responsible part of my process that builds trust and effectively leads to success. It is my goal to help keep my clients well informed in order to empower thoughtful decisions. If you have any questions about the market or you’re ready to dive in, please reach out.

On this episode of “Monday with Matthew,” Matthew analyzes the latest Home Purchase Sentiment Index survey by Fannie Mae which helps us understand how buyers and sellers are feeling about the housing market.